There is something off about the playcalling matrix. In the first preseason game in MFN-19, I have my matrix set up like so.

1st Down - Medium
50% - Short Passes
35% - Outside Runs

2nd Down - Medium
40% - Short Passes
20% - Medium Passes
25% - Outside Runs

2nd Down - Long
40% - Medium Passes
25% - Short Passes
20% - Outside Runs

3rd Down - Medium
30% - Medium Passes
25% - Short Passes
25% - Outside Runs

3rd Down - Long
40% - Medium Passes
20% - Long Passes
20% - Outside runs

My team ran 12 out of the first 17 snaps in the base offense. This isn't the first I'm I've seen a team go way outside the statistical norm based on the matrix.

check your rule settings i had the same issue this week and that's what it was for me

my gameplan was
1st and 2nd any distance 25% combined outside/inside runs
3rd short 35% combined, medium 30% combined, long 8% combined outside/inside runs

yet i had 69 offensive plays 21 were pass (30.4%), 48 were run (69.6%)

when i checked my rules i had a rule activated that i setup for use against a team with bad run defense which was set for 70% run plays on 1st-3rd down at short-medium ranges

also another issue with this is, at the end of last season i had this rule deactivated yet it somehow activated itself.....

I don't have any rules that get in the way of my base offense. My rules are all field location or time specific. I would say that 90% of the time, I'm in my base offense.

Be sure to look at the play popup to see your selected plays and the probability each will be called. If you happen to have more plays in your playbook that are in the base offense than other plays, they will have a higher probability of being called just by the number of plays - and there are plays of each type in the base offense. The engine first chooses the play type, then chooses the play from that type based on the weights of each play in that type that you see in the play popup.

It could also just be that the random number generator happened to give you numbers that are statistically less likely, too.

I definitely have checked the plays, and the short passes should have been called out of my base sets with much more consistency than the runs. Both were being run out of basically the same personnel set since I'm running a variation on the spread offense in preseason in the league. I also had more short passes than runs in the playbook in that set, so it's looking like the random number generator just decided to roll low. I'm already making adjustments for game two so that I can see my QB1 throw the ball.