In the middle of a tight game with KoB, his QB drops back and throws to a wide open RB who drops the ball. This always infuriates me because it means that the WIDE OPEN receiver nerf is still firmly in place.

But, this play, this play adds a whole new frustration. The reason the RB drops the ball, according to the PbP is because of play overuse. There is no pressure on the QB, there is no good coverage to cause the drop, the RB just drops the ball because the play got called too many times: https://mfn2.myfootballnow.com/watch/10419#1884070

Yeah that one bit is one thing I never understood.

Let's repeat that: Overusing a play means that there's a greater chance, that the play won't be successful.

I get that the defense should "learn to read" the play better, if you're overusing it. But how does your own players get worse at the play? That makes no sense.

Imo, both sides should get "slightly" better when using/facing a play more than 5(?) times per game or something like that. The offense should get better at executing the play and the defense should get better at reading what's happening, as they experienced it.

What could be done, imo, is the defense gets a bigger advantage than the offense, so it in essence works out like it is now; that overuse leads to greater risk of turnovers and failed plays -- but it has to be because the defense adapts and "improves", not because your wide open RB all of a sudden drops a hand off.

I don't think the overuse of a play is causing drops or it's not the only reason, because I have a lot of drops even from plays that are not overused...

You will notice a correlation between Pass Rec courage and Pass catching. One thing to remember is that the game shows you a top view only mode, so you do not see the effect of a defender has on the projectory of the ball.

Example; a tall DE puts his arms up (JJ Watts) to a wide open RB low courage and low catching; from field level the RB doesn't see the ball clearly and drops it. From a top view, it will look as if the RB drop the ball easily.

Take the same example and a RB with both high courage and catching will make the adjustment and thus make the catch.

Courage shouldn't affect open passes, only contested *****/catches in traffic.

The RB in the play has both high catch and high courage so that point was moot anyway.

Re: Dropped Passes
By jdavidbakr - Site Admin
2/26/2014 8:57 pm
When the ball is thrown from the quarterback, the optimal launch vector is determined, and then error is added to it based on the QB's accuracy. The ball is then launched, and the receiver adjusts to get to the optimal receiving location based on the flight path of the ball. Once the receiver reaches his closest point to the ball, if the ball is outside of his arm's length or too high then he is unable to catch it, so he does not get a drop stat. If the ball is within his arm's length, he gets a probability factor of whether or not the catch is made. This takes into consideration his pass catching ability, the distance away from him that the ball is, the altitude of the ball, whether the ball is behind him vs. in front of him (behind him reduces his probability of making the catch), and also the proximity of the defenders and their velocity vectors (if he's about to get a head-on collision, he is more likely to drop the ball, driven by his courage bar and the defender's Punish Receiver bar). If the defender has a strong enough influence in the drop, then instead of a drop stat the defender gets a knock-down stat

That is everything before the abused play is added, which is a boost for the defense in the original post. Not a decrease for the offense. Who knows where or how the drop nerf is added? but that is the most powerful

My problem is that defense didn't cause that drop unless a defender more than 3 yards away from the receiver made the receiver freak out enough to drop the ball.

Could it be he just dropped the ball?

It happens every Saturday and Sunday. How many times have you watched a game when a RB is wide open and takes his eyes of the ball and just drops it.