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Re: Slow Rebuild thru the Draft

By raymattison21
2/05/2020 11:10 am

Only the blue. The red increases based on HC, OC/DC, and the respective position coaches induvidual ratings. Playing time minor increases the red as well, but pre player generation blue limits are set ...and the boom or bust is a seperate roll limiting the blue till they actualize .

Volatility is slightly obscured and varies a bit after the pick is made. Aside from the slight volatility boost also added after each round passes and the player is not selected the blue can be considerably effected with high scores and room to grow.

The base of red development is within that pre player generation which comes along with different rates that the red actualizes. Some guys specific ratings will shoot right maxed out and while other will develop slowly no matter coaches or playing time.

Bring on the draft and many guys are more ready than others(the red), but some boomers like a qb 25/100 for accuracy wont be ready for a few seasons .

In your league that low volatility wr looks great buts theres a 32 vol guy a bit down who i kinda like better. A bit more of a risk, but the 8 vol guy busting and that 32 boomimg would be the difference, and that part is 50/50.

doing a slow rebuild it would matter who would actualize quicker but those guys that do are worth a bit more. Still, the higher i draft the more i weigh in the fact they might bust. Individually the red ratings that are closer to the blue,theoritically will drop less if they bust. When tightly evaluating guys i will take that in to account. Like if the busting players skill ratings are still good enough to play the desired positon.

I really like guys who can play a few positions. If they bust and ball carry and fumble stays higher they will be a back. A LBer that loses man might move to Dline or saftey . Getting the most out of your pick is my approach.

Its like that 32 vol. wr....he will gain a bit of speed at wr and the 8 will lose a bit of speed. Both are great and will be a nice addition. I dont know who will actualize quicker but he has 66 ball carry. Alegit weapon out the gates. Maybe not at only wr ....unless he actualizes quickly, but at least game one he will a big hitter out of the back feild or on special teams

Its splitting hairs at this point but fun for me anyway

Re: Slow Rebuild thru the Draft

By setherick
2/10/2020 10:35 pm
I wrote this several years ago, but the basics still apply: https://paydirt.myfootballnow.com/community/3/2915?page=1#19452

Re: Slow Rebuild thru the Draft

By ColonelFailure
2/11/2020 5:46 am
You won't rebuild through the draft alone. Here's a theory of winning I wrote last month:

1. Rookies are a future investment
A rookie player will usually have full position experience in their first season. They will however almost certainly be some way short of their future potential. A quarterback with 75/100 passing accuracy is a liability, even if they end up as a hall of fame candidate by the end of their career. Analysis indicates that it takes until a player's 5th season before their current rating matches their future rating (unless they're losing value). This process can be lengthened further if players are moved to a new position.

2. Learning your playbook
Maximising play experience as an individual player takes many times running that play. Each player has some play knowledge coming into your team even as a rookie, but it will take them several seasons where they get ball-time before they learn the ins and outs of your scheme. If it's not already obvious, this means that there is also a penalty to your progress if you change your style of play mid-way through the careers of your players.

3. Taking aim at 4 seasons from now
While you're obviously going to try and win as much as possible every year, equally you want to get a feel for when your team is going to hit the sweet spot between years 4 and 8 - the point at which the majority of your players are at their peak. During that window you want to be losing as few players to retirement as possible while making trades that bring in players who already have experience, and are at the same kind of peak as your core team. A mishmash of rookies and vets will lead to a middling record where you're unlikely to perform brilliantly or terribly.

4. Deciding when your campaign begins
Right now, almost every team has a mishmash of players of various ages. That's fine and good and normal. One of the risks of a "targeted season" is that not only will you land a strong team all at once, but that team will become obsolete all at once leading you to require a total rebuild as the franchise ages.

If you jealously covet every one of your draft picks, allowing for bust players you'll easily renew your roster as it retires especially if you dabble in free agency and waivers. You will have difficulty hitting the sweet spot in experience for the majority of your starters however, as you'll have players in every segment of age range. It's not impossible to do well in this scenario, but you're making it needlessly difficult.

If you're opting to aim for a target window of success build it around one or two key players. If they're young (rookie to age 3) trade picks galore to get more young players and to bring as many draft picks your way as possible as quickly as possible. You want these guys in the ideal experience zone all at once so you can then trade more to fill in any gaps in your roster. With your player acquisition strategy in place decide on your gameplan... and stick to it! You want 20-30 offensive and 10-20 defensive plays that your team are near 100% familiar with by the time they're in their 4th or 5th season. You'll know when you're there, because you'll start winning a lot.

When you're first learning gameplans, particularly with rookies, expect turnovers galore. Expect games with really low offensive output or atrocious 3rd down performance. This is fine. In order to win you first have to lose a bunch. Your rookie quarterback may be a total liability but he needs to learn the playbook and won't do that on the bench.

But what if you want to win right now...

5. The other option
Between the free agency market (at the right times of the season) and a massive amount of trading it is more than possible to put together a winning team from nothing but veteran players. If you retain a few draft picks and one of them turns out to be a superstar you'll find there are a lot of teams who'll pay over the odds for their services. Trading a cornerback who looks certain to be a superstar in 4 seasons for 3 80+ rated, starter calibre players is very very doable. If you're prepare to take on players on the virge of retirement as well, you can snap up some amazing talent at well under market rate. The problems you'll encounter are solved with time investment - orchestrate deals all over the place, focus in on teams whose playbook is similar to the one you want to use. You'll need to be very careful with your salary cap (although trading removes any liability for bonuses) and you'll be renewing your team regularly.

The easiest trading targets are teams with a mixed age range of players who look like they might be rebuilding. They'll jump at the chance for more draft picks or future stars in exchange for players in their final 3 seasons.

6. The golden rule
As always, trade. Teams who don't trade won't win. Teams who don't instigate trades to better their own team are less likely to do well, because it is one of their opponents who is actively pursuing a winning team.

Re: Slow Rebuild thru the Draft

By Redneckgopher
2/11/2020 8:25 am
awesome stuff, thank you
lots to chew on

Re: Slow Rebuild thru the Draft

By Mitch4742
2/11/2020 11:06 am
Redneckgopher wrote:
So I've taken over a bottom level team not only in cap trouble but the roster is quite pedestrian and needs help at many positions.
https://moguls.myfootballnow.com/team/24

I was always in the understanding that if a players drops at all he will continue to drop unfortunately. I've never had much luck in the draft myself..lol

I'm still fairly new so bear with me. Last season was the 1st draft I took part in and while I was trying to just look at best player avail I was also looking at the player volatility hoping to avoid a bust. Again I'm new so don't judge my picks, hehe I picked 3rd with a player vol of 14

After making initial team cuts, I've realized this is a long term project and not a one/two season draft a stud WR to play at WR/RB and then win the Division/Conference. I can see that I need to not only draft smart and pay attention to waiver wire but that it is crucial that the top draft picks do not bust. Along with the roster it looks to take a few seasons of tough choices to also address the Cap trouble so that after a few seasons I would like to think we can turn the team around and start to be competitive. It will take time but I am prepared for that.

Here is where I am really going. How low in player volatility do you need to go to ensure your player/s wont bust. I would not imagine being fun to have a 1st round pick bust and extend the teams misfortunes.
So my question is: with the initial boom/bust/neutral player change in the first season, is it really just a case of a "predefined target" that the player wants to move to and the volatility is the resistance or acceleration to get there? When I look back at the previous draft 1st round I see mixed results

So with my low volatility player (14) and a -1 future max, I hope that this may be all he will drop
but I guess I wont know for a few seasons

last draft
- 1.1 Vol 68 From Start +8/0
- 1.2 Vol 92 “ “ +2/-12 **
- 1.3 Vol 14 “ “ +46/-1 *
- 1.4 Vol 46 “ “ +20/0
- 1.5 Vol 50 “ “ +14/+2
- 1.6 Vol 80 “ “ +8/-11 **
- 1.7 Vol 94 “ “ +13/+5
- 1.8 Vol 20 “ “ +16/-3 *
- 1.9 Vol 10 “ “ +8/+1
- 1.10 Vol 20 “ “ +17/+1
- 1.11 Vol 30 “ “ +15/-4 *
- 1.12 Vol 4 “ “ +16/+1
- 1.13 Vol 28 “ “ +17/+3
- 1.14 Vol 38 “ “ +4/-1 *
- 1.15 Vol 70 “ “ +5/-4 *
- 1.16 Vol 6 “ “ +13/+1
- 1.17 Vol 60 “ “ +10/-6 **
- 1.18 Vol 14 “ “ +11/-2 *
- 1.19 Vol 54 “ “ +30/+5
- 1.20 Vol 98 “ “ +16/+5
- 1.21 Vol 2 “ “ +14/0
- 1.22 Vol 10 “ “ +13/0
- 1.23 Vol 10 “ “ +9/+1
- 1.25 Vol 54 “ “ +16/-13 **
- 1.26 Vol 94 “ “ +6/-8 **
- 1.27 Vol 68 “ “ +9/-4 *
- 1.28 Vol 68 “ “ +11/-8 **
- 1.29 Vol 32 “ “ +15/-4 *
- 1.30 Vol 58 “ “ +11/-5. **
- 1.31 Vol 68 “ “ +10/-4 *
- 1.32 Vol 26 “ “ +12/+4
1st round volatility grouping
<= 10
+1, 0, +1
10’s
-1, +1, -2, 0, +1,
20’s
-3, +1, +3, +4
30’s
-4, -1, -4
40’s
0,
50’s
+2, +5, -13, -5
60’s
0, -6, -4, -8 , -4
70’s
-4,
80’s
-11,
90’s
-12, +5, +5, -8,

OK so now I look to upcoming draft and while I am not certain It looks like I will be drafting 3rd or 4th. The 2028 class has a stud WR with vol at 8 but I am not in a position to try to move up.
Last season the players with vol <30 turned out pretty good with only 3/12 dropping by a small margin. Hopefully that may be all they will drop. Past 50's it looks pretty underwhelming that your pick will stay at his current level of potential. Jeez even the 30's wasn't good.

In the upcoming draft the top players with my weights (typical adjusted) show that the top draftees are 42,84,8,66,52,38,58,4,70,82,36,46,22,44,84,94,
I have to drop to the 25th ranked player to get back to a low vol of 10
Now granted the teams above ours may not be so conservative but at the 3rd/4th pick the difference of player future max drops from the 90's down to 80's so it may take even longer to rebuild the team without taking some risk. So do I need to get down below 10 volatility to be a steady rebuild or just by the nature of gambling and RNG am I compelled to take the risk and draft a higher potential player to cornerstone the franchise?

Re: Slow Rebuild thru the Draft

By Mitch4742
2/11/2020 11:07 am

I was always in the understanding that if a players drops at all he will continue to drop unfortunately. I've never had much luck in the draft myself..lol

Re: Slow Rebuild thru the Draft

By Cjfred68
2/14/2020 2:30 pm
Plus.....

The volatility of a player you draft now can change after you draft him.

I have been in well over 100 drafts including 15 or so allocation drafts and I ignore volatility for the most part unless 2 players are equally attractive in the 1st round then I will use volatility as the tiebreaker.

Once you hit the 4th round, you want high volatility because the player has a chance to boom high.